Is There a Moore's Law for Artificial Intelligence?

You might wonder whether it is possible to create a rate-of-improvement algorithm for artificial intelligence as we have algorithms for computing power and home broadband speeds, such as Moore’s Law and Nielsen’s Law. 

It is easier to illustrate the increase in computational power to support AI for the simple reason that we can use parallel processing hardware to support AI.  But AI progress depends on lots of other things.

For AI applications, training time matters. 

source: IEEE Spectrum; MLPerf 

To be sure, deep learning and neural networks might be said to increase algorithmic efficiency. That might bend the Moore’s Law curve higher. But artificial intelligence also depends on large datasets to train machines, so chip level performance is but one input. 

In other words, AI--especially machine learning--is driven by multiple inputs, not just chip performance. Moore’s Law, by itself, suggests increases in transistor density of roughly a doubling every year to 18 months.

In the case of machine learning, software and computer architecture, plus the ability to access bigger data sets, can produce a seven-fold 11-fold rate of improvement.

source: Discover magazine,; Jaime Sevilla, University of Aberdeen 

The point is that, at least for machine learning, progress has been faster than Moore’s Law.

AI Enables AR and VR, Which Enable Metaverse

Artificial intelligence is a crucial enabler of augmented and virtual reality, both of which are enablers of eventual metaverse experiences. AI, AR and VR all are examples of applying better technology to enhance the realism of media and content experiences, a process that is a century in the making.

Not all observers believe metaverse environments  will actually happen. Others might argue it just makes no sense. Even optimists warn that it will take a decade or more to develop.

But there is another way to look at movement towards full metaverse experiences that suggests it will arrive: realism. Defined as the experience that “you are there,” realism approaches “real life” experiences: three dimensional, interactive, using multiple senses. 

Think about the experience of participating in a sport, watching others play a sport live in a stadium, watching it on television or listening on radio, viewing a photo of the game or hearing somebody talk about a great play during that game, reading a story about that game or viewing an artist’s rendition of a key moment in a game. 

The point is that there are degrees of immersion and realism, and that the degree of realism has tended to improve in the eras of electronic media. 

source: Prezi 

“Real life” experiences are the ultimate in realism: you actually are there, actually doing something. All media are efforts to portray activities such as surfing, playing baseball or cooking in ways that simulate “being there and doing that.”

Storytelling is perhaps among the oldest forms of media or content. But it requires use of imagination on the part of the listener. Live theater performances were early developments in realism, as “you had to be there” watching real people in real roles. 

Electronic media extended participation in experiences, but with less realism. Radio was sound only, and monaural. Stereo arguably improved realism. “Surround sound” added more realism. 

Film was more immersive, but without sound. Movies were more realistic after sound was added. Film arguably became more realistic after the addition of color. 

Television began in black and white, then added color. Digital media improved realism by increased image definition (first DVDs, then Blu-ray). Broadcast television switched from lower-resolution NTSC to HDTV. Now we are moving to 4K and 8K. 

Think about 3D movies or TV as efforts to further extend immersion and therefore realism. 

Videogames initially were quite two dimensional. Today’s games are graphically much more realistic and immersive. 

In that framework, our movements toward metaverse are the next stage of improvements in realism and immersion. Persistent, three-dimensional environments where “you” and other people and objects “are there” is simply part of the on-going development of media realism. 

Of course, there are other angles. In manufacturing, realism might mean that whole processes can be modeled and replicated in real time. For videoconferencing, realism might be the sensation that all participants are in the same room. 

Metaverse will get traction as it proves to enhance realism in media experiences. And that is why, despite the hype and the long journey to commercialize it, metaverse ultimately will arrive. 

Humans have adopted all forms of media that provide higher realism.