Will AI Boost Productivity Rates, and How Long Will it Take?

The percentage of enterprise capital investment on technology, compared to other physical hardware, has climbed since 1980, with technology spend reaching half of total spending by about 2020, according to the Wells Fargo Institute. 

And, according to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, non-farm productivity has reached an annual peak rate about seven years after a wave of innovation was launched, assuming one believes knowledge or service work productivity can be quantified. Still, the point is that enterprises invest based on the expectation of higher sales and profits, made possible by productivity improvements. 

source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis   

Many believe a new era of investment is coming, driven by artificial intelligence; extended, virtual or augmented reality and the internet of things, that could boost productivity rates again. 

source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis  

If that happens, it might not be driven by efficiency gains, but by creation of new products and services. 

Decade	Digital Investment Trends Begin	Stated Objectives
1980s	Personal computers, mainframes, and minicomputers	Improve efficiency and productivity
1990s	The internet, e-commerce, and web-based applications	Reach new markets, improve customer service, and reduce costs
2000s	Cloud computing, mobile devices, and social media	Increase agility and flexibility, improve collaboration, and reach new customers
2010s	Artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing	Automate tasks, improve decision-making, and personalize experiences
2020s	Quantum computing, augmented reality, and virtual reality	Create new products and services, solve complex problems, and transform industries