One issue with estimating potential metaverse revenues is that metaverse may be a feature of current experiences and products. So one can infer or attribute “metaverse” revenue to any product that might happen to use the capabilities.
One might also differentiate between service revenues and metaverse hardware or appliance revenues. ABI Research appears to focus on the latter.
Between 2021 and 2030, the number of active users in virtual spaces requiring headsets will climb from 118.3 million to 1,048.8 million, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4 percent, according to ABI Research.
Virtual spaces headset revenue will grow from US$4.2 billion in 2021 to US$44.8 billion in 2030, the firm estimates.
ABI appears to model its results by estimating revenue in existing product categories that are obvious because they require the use of virtual reality headsets. Nearly $5 billion could be earned in 2030 by customers paying for headset-enabled experiences, for example.
Roughly the same amount of revenue is anticipated to be generated by VR-enabled videogaming. Smaller amounts will be required to support advertising functions or cloud content.
The biggest growth, though, should happen in the video collaboration area. ABI Research forecasts that total collaboration revenue (collaboration and related services revenue and dedicated video collaboration hardware revenue) will increase from US$24 billion in 2020 to US$64 billion in 2030.
That might be the only area where services revenue also is significant. That will include revenues generated by meetings where attendees are virtual.
In that sense any estimate of “metaverse” revenue faces the same issue as forecasts for other products that are a combination of hardware, software and services revenue: 5G private networks; local area networks; software-defined wide area networks, edge computing or internet of things.
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