Will Metaverse Eclipse Smartphone before 2030?

It is hard to believe Nokia CTO Nishant Batra actually said smartphones “will be overtaken by a metaverse experience in the second half of the decade.” To elaborate, Batra reportedly said Nokia sees “the metaverse becoming an all-consuming technology at the end of this decade, replacing smartphones as the primary form of communication.”

The apparently original source does contain that quote. But the story also says that “by 2030, Nokia envisions a 6G world that ushers in advanced technology like computer vision, bio sensors, digital twins and immersive AR and VR.” 

That presumably came from Batra. One suspects he was misquoted, though Nokia itself has not said so. 

In other statements, Batra has said that “beginning in 2030, our vision for the larger metaverse merges with our vision for the 6G era.” That language--while not speaking directly to the issue of whether new devices will supersede smartphones--does suggest a possible evolution starting about 2030, which is about the time 6G will start to appear. 

“Instead of applying a virtual overlay to the physical world, 6G will allow us to directly manipulate the physical world through digital means – in essence allowing human beings to augment themselves,” Batra said. “This will create the most immersive holographic metaverse realities, which can be experienced synchronously and persistently by an effectively unlimited number of users.”

Still, that is just the start. It is highly likely that the ubiquitous build out of 6G will take three to five years. In the meantime, apps and devices will have to rely on inconsistent 6G availability. That does not mean three-dimensional and immersive experiences will not happen, only that they might not happen on the 5G network. 

Still, it is hard to see VR appliances supplanting smartphones by 2030 or even 2040, given the amount of time it often takes major innovations to reach mass adoption. 

The phrase “by 2030” appears to be marketing hype, more than a realistic forecast of technology adoption. “Metaverse” might start to take hold with 6G, but 6G itself will not launch until 2030 or so, so the slogan is aspirational, not a statement of deployed technology and consumer adoption.