Friday, January 13, 2023

Airbus AI Illustrates Adoption Process


Many new technologies follow a familiar adoption pattern: they are introduced as an augmentation of the prevailing platrom, producing a "hybrid." As in this case, automated control of aircraft is likely to appear as a backup to live human pilots, and for emergency use. 

Over a period of time, humans will gradually get used to wider uses, as they now accept autopilot operations when they travel on commercial airliners. Early evidence suggests a similar adoption process for automated vehicles. "Niches" are great ways to introduce new platforms.

For automarted vehicles, perhaps long-haul trucking winds up being an early usage mode. As safety, familiarity and value get demonstrated, people will start to add other use cases over time. 

Some of you might recall selling some access network products as a "backup" to a primary link. Over time, the backup was deemed reliable enough to displace the primary solution. 

That has been a staple for competitors and upstarts in computing and communications for decades. A new provider acknowledges some feature limitations, but pitches the solution as a backup, for redundancy, for example. Over time, feature sets get better, until one day there is no big distinction between the legacy provider and the former upstart. MCI did precisely that when challenging AT&T in the long distance communications markets. 

A classic example from outside the communications business is steam power on ships. Most early adoption was "steam plus sail." 

Not many humans would today say they are comfortable flying in an autonomous aircraft with no human pilots onboard, much as many would say they remain uncomfortable with fully autonomous vehicles for everyday use. 

So hybrid deployments are virtually inevitable, often using the new platforms in specialized and limited ways, at first. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

MWC and AI Smartphones

Mobile World Congress was largely about artificial intelligence, hence largely about “AI” smartphones. Such devices are likely to pose issue...