Saturday, February 4, 2023

When Making Career Choices, Choose Wisely

I once had a management professor give one bit of advice to people just entering the workforce. When choosing an industry to work in, it is better to choose a fast-growing industry rather than a slow-growth or declining industry. 


If one has a choice, it is helpful to be in an industry forecast to show lots of growth, which also often correlates with other valuation ratios, such as enterprise value/revenue. 


Here is a ranking of industries made by Stern School at New York University researchers and updated in January 2023. Looking at EV/Sales ratios, one can see that valuation ratios can routinely vary by an order of magnitude. 


Financial services and real estate investment trusts routinely are valued at 10 to 20 times specialty retailers and as much as 63 times higher than grocers. Compared to fixed network communications services, financial services are an order of magnitude more highly valued. 


IndustryValuation Enterprise Value Compared to Sales Ratio

Industry Name

Number of firms

Price/Sales

Net Margin

EV/Sales

Pre-tax Operating Margin

Financial Services (Non-bank and Insurance)

223

2.18

26.32%

23.49

15.88%

R.E.I.T. 

223

6.35

23.77%

11.06

23.20%

Utility (Water)

16

6.43

25.12%

9.18

29.38%

Green & Renewable Energy

19

3.68

17.77%

7.79

24.48%

Software (System & Application)

390

7.14

14.61%

7.59

21.90%

Software (Internet)

33

5.57

-19.07%

6.33

-5.48%

Transportation (Railroads)

4

5.04

27.65%

6.32

39.86%

Information Services

73

5.77

16.62%

6.26

24.21%

Drugs (Biotechnology)

598

5.78

0.65%

6.18

11.87%

Healthcare Information and Technology

138

4.81

-0.33%

5.33

17.00%

Investments & Asset Management

600

4.15

24.93%

5.16

18.15%

Healthcare Products

254

4.73

7.00%

5.15

15.13%

Tobacco

15

4.19

23.46%

5.05

43.97%

Semiconductor

68

4.63

22.74%

4.98

25.44%

Drugs (Pharmaceutical)

281

4.38

18.35%

4.85

27.37%

Beverage (Soft)

31

4.16

14.60%

4.67

19.14%

Bank (Money Center)

7

2.55

26.96%

4.49

0.10%

Brokerage & Investment Banking

30

2.14

16.01%

4.46

0.31%

Banks (Regional)

557

3.2

30.31%

4.34

-0.10%

Utility (General)

15

2.47

12.68%

4.28

18.03%

Hotel/Gaming

69

2.75

1.10%

4.2

4.23%

Beverage (Alcoholic)

23

3.38

5.76%

4.07

20.17%

Restaurant/Dining

70

3.16

9.28%

4.07

12.80%

Real Estate (General/Diversified)

12

3.14

12.67%

4.02

18.60%

Power

48

2.14

9.17%

3.75

15.67%

Computers/Peripherals

42

3.41

16.68%

3.67

21.43%

Semiconductor Equip

30

3.43

22.27%

3.66

27.44%

Household Products

127

3.23

11.25%

3.65

17.12%

Software (Entertainment)

91

3.54

20.91%

3.59

25.65%

Telecom Equipment

79

3.31

13.29%

3.56

18.63%

Precious Metals

74

3.3

7.18%

3.55

10.10%

Shoe

13

3.06

11.17%

3.22

12.83%

Telecom (Wireless)

16

1.98

2.54%

3.18

12.37%

Entertainment

110

2.47

0.90%

3.06

7.44%

Environmental & Waste Services

62

2.44

7.29%

3.03

12.85%

Real Estate (Development)

18

1.42

15.04%

2.81

17.48%

Total Market

7165

1.95

8.89%

2.8

11.60%

Electrical Equipment

110

2.38

7.31%

2.77

10.25%

Machinery

116

2.28

8.51%

2.67

14.00%

Oil/Gas Distribution

23

1.54

2.08%

2.6

10.82%

Aerospace/Defense

77

2.1

4.05%

2.55

8.68%

Diversified

23

2.16

0.98%

2.5

3.59%

Chemical (Specialty)

76

2.05

8.07%

2.48

14.80%

Cable TV

10

1.19

7.91%

2.43

19.52%

Total Market (without financials)

5649

1.93

7.77%

2.35

12.03%

Telecom. Services

49

1.01

12.81%

2.18

19.95%

Insurance (General)

21

1.7

15.21%

2.16

21.86%

Construction Supplies

49

1.72

8.23%

2.15

11.16%

Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration)

174

1.83

26.01%

2.12

35.68%

Food Processing

92

1.66

7.10%

2.1

11.94%

Metals & Mining

68

1.86

9.66%

2.06

22.84%

Business & Consumer Services

164

1.69

4.92%

2.05

9.22%

Advertising

58

1.49

3.79%

1.96

11.11%

Retail (Building Supply)

15

1.64

8.67%

1.96

13.81%

Electronics (General)

138

1.73

6.32%

1.94

9.83%

Retail (Online)

63

1.63

0.64%

1.87

1.84%

Education

33

1.57

2.92%

1.85

5.16%

Auto and Truck

31

1.32

5.02%

1.81

6.49%

Recreation

57

1.22

1.30%

1.77

8.31%

Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities

34

0.85

5.31%

1.57

11.62%

Retail (Distributors)

69

1.06

7.30%

1.45

11.90%

Trucking

35

1.07

1.29%

1.45

9.18%

Coal & Related Energy

19

1.35

20.44%

1.43

22.17%

Insurance (Prop/Cas.)

51

1.21

4.05%

1.39

6.49%

Oil/Gas (Integrated)

4

1.31

15.17%

1.39

17.46%

Building Materials

45

1.1

10.30%

1.36

13.94%

Broadcasting

26

0.6

11.90%

1.33

14.75%

Insurance (Life)

27

0.83

6.07%

1.33

8.39%

Packaging & Container

25

0.79

6.06%

1.25

9.63%

Farming/Agriculture

39

0.94

5.66%

1.22

7.78%

Computer Services

80

0.93

2.53%

1.17

6.89%

Apparel

39

0.81

5.07%

1.16

11.11%

Publishing & Newspapers

20

0.88

2.82%

1.16

7.75%

Engineering/Construction

43

0.87

2.16%

1.08

4.69%

Transportation

18

0.89

6.99%

1.08

9.38%

Shipbuilding & Marine

8

0.82

21.55%

1.07

26.33%

Air Transport

21

0.42

-1.71%

1.02

2.08%

Real Estate (Operations and Services)

60

0.52

-0.76%

1

0.50%

Retail (Special Lines)

78

0.72

3.86%

0.97

5.74%

Office Equipment & Services

16

0.6

2.36%

0.93

6.26%

Chemical (Diversified)

4

0.64

13.16%

0.91

13.56%

Retail (Automotive)

30

0.59

4.07%

0.91

5.73%

Chemical (Basic)

38

0.63

9.70%

0.89

13.14%

Furn/Home Furnishings

32

0.6

2.03%

0.88

7.89%

Homebuilding

32

0.71

13.98%

0.85

18.79%

Auto Parts

37

0.62

2.16%

0.82

5.19%

Retail (General)

15

0.7

2.35%

0.81

4.12%

Electronics (Consumer and Office)

16

0.78

0.54%

0.78

2.11%

Paper/Forest Products

7

0.58

10.23%

0.77

18.59%

Healthcare Support Services

131

0.61

2.01%

0.69

4.00%

Steel

28

0.58

14.70%

0.68

19.89%

Reinsurance

1

0.58

3.54%

0.63

4.64%

Oilfield Svcs/Equip.

101

0.47

5.25%

0.58

7.37%

Rubber and  Tires

3

0.14

4.21%

0.55

5.84%

Food Wholesalers

14

0.29

1.09%

0.41

2.10%

Retail (Grocery and Food)

13

0.24

1.96%

0.37

2.92%

source: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/psdata.xls


The point is that, when one has a choice, choose to enter an industry with higher growth rates or higher valuation ratios or both. 


The same sort of relationship also holds for managerial success, once those choices have been made. It is easier to be a “hero” when one has worked in a fast-growing, more-profitable industry to begin with. The same amount of effort and talent is likely to produce consistently higher outcomes compared to the same effort and talent expended in a slow-growth, lower-valuation industry. 


Of course, one has to evaluate the particular valuation metrics used. Also, not every ranking, even using the same metric, will produce the same results. That can be the case when industries routinely rely on different amounts of debt financing, when “cost of goods” is disparate, or when a ranking is unrepresentative of all firms in an industry (focusing only the largest firms, for example). 


Industry

EV/Revenue

Publishing

31.54

EDP Services

23.45

Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks

19.54

Computer Software: Prepackaged Software

17.81

Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)

17.75

Real Estate Investment Trusts

17.62

Retail: Computer Software & Peripheral Equipment

17.18

Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus

16.85

Managed Health Care

14.97

Ophthalmic Goods

14.57

Business Services

14.37

Finance: Consumer Services

14.29

Real Estate

12.69

Auto Manufacturing

12.53

Multi-Sector Companies

10.34

Biotechnology: Commercial Physical & Biological Research

10.33

Medical/Dental Instruments

10.17

Advertising

9.96

Semiconductors

9.82

Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service

8.57

Oil & Gas Production

8.51

Hotels/Resorts

8.29

Beverages (Production/Distribution)

7.85

Major Pharmaceuticals

7.75

Other Consumer Services

7.38

Specialty Chemicals

7.31

Environmental Services

7.16

Industrial Machinery/Components

6.81

Misc Health and Biotechnology Services

6.78

Biotechnology: In Vitro & In Vivo Diagnostic Substances

6.68

Restaurants

6.62

Investment Managers

6.62

Industrial Specialties

6.54

Movies/Entertainment

6.51

Building operators

6.25

Telecommunications Equipment

6.19

Other Transportation

6.15

Diversified Commercial Services

6.08

Electrical Products

6.01

Television Services

5.95

Electric Utilities: Central

5.72

Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment

5.59

Services or Misc. Amusement & Recreation

5.5

Savings Institutions

5.35

Rental/Leasing Companies

5.31

Water Supply

5.22

Internet and Information Services

5.19

Diversified Financial Services

5.15

Railroads

5.08

Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments

5.03

Precision Instruments

5.01

Medical Specialties

4.89

Power Generation

4.74

Motor Vehicles

4.65

Oil/Gas Transmission

4.62

Specialty Foods

4.52

Military/Government/Technical

4.43

Assisted Living Services

4.41

Package Goods/Cosmetics

4.22

Diversified Manufacture

4.01

Metal Fabrications

3.98

Finance/Investors Services

3.94

Medical Electronics

3.86

Ordnance And Accessories

3.82

Wholesale Distributors

3.75

Office Equipment/Supplies/Services

3.66

Natural Gas Distribution

3.55

Broadcasting

3.49

Fluid Controls

3.46

Banks

3.46

Tools/Hardware

3.35

Oilfield Services/Equipment

3.29

Commercial Banks

3.24

Computer peripheral equipment

3.23

Major Chemicals

3.12

Medical/Nursing Services

3.11

Aerospace

3.06

Major Banks

3.04

Specialty Insurers

3.01

Life Insurance

2.91

Agricultural Chemicals

2.88

Paints/Coatings

2.85

Building Materials

2.84

Homebuilding

2.8

Air Freight/Delivery Services

2.79

Building Products

2.78

Computer Software: Programming Data Processing

2.68

Farming/Seeds/Milling

2.6

Other Metals and Minerals

2.56

Recreational Products/Toys

2.54

Catalog/Specialty Distribution

2.54

Shoe Manufacturing

2.5

Precious Metals

2.5

Other Specialty Stores

2.3

Consumer Electronics/Video Chains

2.24

Electronic Components

2.23

Computer Manufacturing

2.2

Steel/Iron Ore

2.19

Professional Services

2.18

Packaged Foods

2.17

Marine Transportation

2.12

Containers/Packaging

2.09

Electronics Distribution

2.07

Trucking Freight/Courier Services

2

Service to the Health Industry

2

Newspapers/Magazines

2

Consumer Electronics/Appliances

1.95

Meat/Poultry/Fish

1.93

Home Furnishings

1.93

Apparel

1.77

Auto Parts: O.E.M.

1.76

Integrated oil Companies

1.73

Hospital/Nursing Management

1.71

Pollution Control Equipment

1.65

Automotive Aftermarket

1.57

Aluminum

1.57

Coal Mining

1.54

Textiles

1.5

Department/Specialty Retail Stores

1.49

Food Distributors

1.47

Paper

1.4

Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores

1.35

Plastic Products

1.31

RETAIL: Building Materials

1.15

Engineering & Construction

1.09

Consumer Specialties

1.04

Property or Casualty Insurers

1.01

Transportation Services

0.99

Accident & Health Insurance

0.98

Oil Refining/Marketing

0.93

Tobacco

0.92

Other Pharmaceuticals

0.92

Finance Companies

0.91

Trusts Except Educational Religious and Charitable

0.79

Forest Products

0.51

Food Chains

0.31

source: https://eqvista.com/revenue-multiples-by-industry/




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