Is There a Moore's Law for Artificial Intelligence?

You might wonder whether it is possible to create a rate-of-improvement algorithm for artificial intelligence as we have algorithms for computing power and home broadband speeds, such as Moore’s Law and Nielsen’s Law. 

It is easier to illustrate the increase in computational power to support AI for the simple reason that we can use parallel processing hardware to support AI.  But AI progress depends on lots of other things.

For AI applications, training time matters. 

source: IEEE Spectrum; MLPerf 

To be sure, deep learning and neural networks might be said to increase algorithmic efficiency. That might bend the Moore’s Law curve higher. But artificial intelligence also depends on large datasets to train machines, so chip level performance is but one input. 

In other words, AI--especially machine learning--is driven by multiple inputs, not just chip performance. Moore’s Law, by itself, suggests increases in transistor density of roughly a doubling every year to 18 months.

In the case of machine learning, software and computer architecture, plus the ability to access bigger data sets, can produce a seven-fold 11-fold rate of improvement.

source: Discover magazine,; Jaime Sevilla, University of Aberdeen 

The point is that, at least for machine learning, progress has been faster than Moore’s Law.

AI Enables AR and VR, Which Enable Metaverse

Artificial intelligence is a crucial enabler of augmented and virtual reality, both of which are enablers of eventual metaverse experiences. AI, AR and VR all are examples of applying better technology to enhance the realism of media and content experiences, a process that is a century in the making.

Not all observers believe metaverse environments  will actually happen. Others might argue it just makes no sense. Even optimists warn that it will take a decade or more to develop.

But there is another way to look at movement towards full metaverse experiences that suggests it will arrive: realism. Defined as the experience that “you are there,” realism approaches “real life” experiences: three dimensional, interactive, using multiple senses. 

Think about the experience of participating in a sport, watching others play a sport live in a stadium, watching it on television or listening on radio, viewing a photo of the game or hearing somebody talk about a great play during that game, reading a story about that game or viewing an artist’s rendition of a key moment in a game. 

The point is that there are degrees of immersion and realism, and that the degree of realism has tended to improve in the eras of electronic media. 

source: Prezi 

“Real life” experiences are the ultimate in realism: you actually are there, actually doing something. All media are efforts to portray activities such as surfing, playing baseball or cooking in ways that simulate “being there and doing that.”

Storytelling is perhaps among the oldest forms of media or content. But it requires use of imagination on the part of the listener. Live theater performances were early developments in realism, as “you had to be there” watching real people in real roles. 

Electronic media extended participation in experiences, but with less realism. Radio was sound only, and monaural. Stereo arguably improved realism. “Surround sound” added more realism. 

Film was more immersive, but without sound. Movies were more realistic after sound was added. Film arguably became more realistic after the addition of color. 

Television began in black and white, then added color. Digital media improved realism by increased image definition (first DVDs, then Blu-ray). Broadcast television switched from lower-resolution NTSC to HDTV. Now we are moving to 4K and 8K. 

Think about 3D movies or TV as efforts to further extend immersion and therefore realism. 

Videogames initially were quite two dimensional. Today’s games are graphically much more realistic and immersive. 

In that framework, our movements toward metaverse are the next stage of improvements in realism and immersion. Persistent, three-dimensional environments where “you” and other people and objects “are there” is simply part of the on-going development of media realism. 

Of course, there are other angles. In manufacturing, realism might mean that whole processes can be modeled and replicated in real time. For videoconferencing, realism might be the sensation that all participants are in the same room. 

Metaverse will get traction as it proves to enhance realism in media experiences. And that is why, despite the hype and the long journey to commercialize it, metaverse ultimately will arrive. 

Humans have adopted all forms of media that provide higher realism.

How Big is Metaverse Market? Depends on What You Count

One issue with estimating potential metaverse revenues is that metaverse may be a feature of current experiences and products. So one can infer or attribute “metaverse” revenue to any product that might happen to use the capabilities. 

One might also differentiate between service revenues and metaverse hardware or appliance revenues. ABI Research appears to focus on the latter. 

Between 2021 and 2030, the number of active users in virtual spaces requiring headsets will climb from 118.3 million to 1,048.8 million, at a  compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4 percent, according to ABI Research.

Virtual spaces headset  revenue will grow  from US$4.2 billion in 2021 to US$44.8 billion in 2030, the firm estimates. 

ABI appears to model its results by estimating revenue in existing product categories that are obvious because they require the use of virtual reality headsets. Nearly $5 billion could be earned in 2030 by customers paying for headset-enabled experiences, for example. 

Roughly the same amount of revenue is anticipated to be generated by VR-enabled videogaming. Smaller amounts will be required to support advertising functions or cloud content. 

The biggest growth, though, should happen in the video collaboration area. ABI Research forecasts that total collaboration revenue (collaboration and related services revenue and dedicated video collaboration hardware revenue) will increase from US$24 billion in 2020 to US$64 billion in 2030. 

source: ABI Research 

That might be the only area where services revenue also is significant. That will include revenues generated by meetings where attendees are virtual. 

In that sense any estimate of “metaverse” revenue faces the same issue as forecasts for other products that are a combination of hardware, software and services  revenue: 5G private networks; local area networks; software-defined wide area networks, edge computing or internet of things.

Execs from Nvidia and Equinix on Scaling AI

Why Many Digital Transformation Efforts Fail

If you have been around information technology investments long enough, you know that outcomes often are negative: the hoped-for benefits do not emerge at all, or prove to be less than expected. Possibly 30 percent of major IT investments actually produce the expected results. 

The same continues to be true of digital transformation efforts and investments. A new survey of IT professionals suggests DX has the same outcomes. 

source: Walkme 

The study also had respondents estimating that, of all IT projects, fully 41 percent failed to meet objectives, in the form of key performance indicators. And the larger the organization, the more likely it is that DX or any other IT initiative will fail. Larger enterprise respondents reported failure rates at six times the rate of small entities. 

source: Walkme 

To be sure, the more-important KPIs deal with financial performance: productivity, equity value growth, higher income or lower costs. 

Such “failures” are not hard to understand. Most large enterprises rely significantly on third-party integrators to attempt complex initiatives. That means lots of organizational complexity. And the number of persons who must not only agree to support, but actively ande usefully support such initiatives is therefore quite high. 

source: Walkme 

And that runs squarely up against an immutable law: the more permissions one requires to get anything done, the lower the chances of success. Consider any project with a number of key influencers. Assume that at each stage, the chances of getting a “yes” are 50 percent.

If only one “yes” is required, odds of success are 50 percent. If two “yes” hurdles are required, success rates drop to 25 percent. If three “yes” hurdles exist, odds drop to 13 percent. Each successive hurdle reduces success rates further. 

As you can see, even a small number of hurdles, each with a 50-50 chance of success, quickly reduces odds of success to an impossible level. After seven hurdles, odds of success are one in 100. 

Obviously, any complex IT project has many more gates than seven. With sufficiently vigorous top-level support, the odds of success at each gate are likely higher than 50 percent. But there are so many more hurdles or gates that odds of success are low; odds of failure high. 

The conventional wisdom is that about 30 percent of big IT projects actually succeed as expected.

Sustainable Competitive Advantage from Advanced Technology?

Perhaps every firm dreams of gaining sustainable advantage over its key competitors. Perhaps no firm ever achieves it. Gartner now seemingly argues that digital transformation will wind up the same way: becoming a way firms compete, but only one way among many, and without permanent leadership outcomes. 

Competitive advantage from “digital transformation” will be as transitory as all earlier applications of computing and information technology, one might conclude from the Gartner assessment. 

As digital networks, “always on” connectivity, and smart devices become ubiquitous and commonplace, computing will simply fade into the background, becoming as unobtrusive as the dumb thermostat or light switch, says Ed Gung, Gartner Research Board managing VP.

As digital technology becomes embedded into the way all parts of the business operate, “digital” will cease to be a useful modifier, he also notes. In the end, digital technology will become just one more dimension on which companies compete. 

Distribution networks, capital assets, exploration rights, customer relationships and content are other levers companies can pull. But sustainable advantage will be difficult to maintain in those realms as well.

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